1990—2021年中国归因于过量饮酒的喉癌疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1673-3770.0.2025.124

Abstract

Abstract: Objective To analyze trends temporal trends in the burden of laryngeal cancer(LC)attributable to excessive alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2021, and project future trajectories through 2040, thereby informing evidence-based disease prevention strategies. Methods Utilizing Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we extracted disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), DALY rates, death counts, and mortality rates as core metrics to assess disease burden. Decomposition analysis was employed to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes to temporal shifts in disease burden. Age-Period-Cohort(APC)modeling was applied to analyze differential trends across age groups, calendar periods, and birth cohorts. Future trajectories through 2040 were projected using a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)model. Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of DALYs and deaths attributable to excessive alcohol consumption increased in China, but the age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)and age standardized mortality rate(ASMR)showed a decreasing trend. Compared with the global level, the burden in China was relatively light; the burden on men was significantly higher than that on women, with the key age groups being 55-59 years and 65-69 years. Population growth is the primary factor driving the increase in burden, while epidemiological changes have a protective effect. The highest burden of throat cancer attributable to excessive alcohol consumption was observed in the 1992-1996 cohort and the 65-69 age group, with older birth cohorts exhibiting a higher burden. Projections indicate that the disease burden will continue to decline by 2040. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the absolute burden of throat cancer caused by excessive alcohol consumption in China continued to increase, but the age-standardized rate showed a downward trend, with predictions indicating that it will continue to decline until 2040. Epidemiological changes have alleviated the disease burden, but population growth and aging have caused the absolute burden to rise. Men over the age of 55 are the key population group affected by the disease burden and remain a key challenge for China in addressing throat cancer caused by excessive alcohol consumption.

Key words: Excessive alcohol consumption, Larynx cancer, Global Burden of Disease, Decomposition analysis, BAPC model

CLC Number:

R739.65

LIU Danfeng, PAN Qingchun, LI Daibo, FENG Xuefei, REN Jian. Burden of larynx cancer attributable to excessive alcohol consumption and prediction of future trends in China from 1990 to 2021[J].Journal of Otolaryngology and Ophthalmology of Shandong University, 2025, 39(5): 61-69.

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Burden of larynx cancer attributable to excessive alcohol consumption and prediction of future trends in China from 1990 to 2021

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