Journal of Otolaryngology and Ophthalmology of Shandong University ›› 2026, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (1): 29-37.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1673-3770.0.2024.356

• Original Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Analysis of influencing factors for laryngeal carcinogenesis and construction of a predictive model

ZHANG Nana, HUANG Guanjiang, LU Biaoqing   

  1. Department of Otorhinolaryngology, Zhongshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine affiliated to Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Zhongshan 528400, Guangdong, China
  • Online:2026-01-20 Published:2026-02-13

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Abstract: Objective To analyze the influencing factors of laryngeal carcinogenesis, incorporating traditional Chinese medicine(TCM)syndrome patterns, and to develop a nomogram prediction model. Methods The clinical data of 219 patients who were first diagnosed with early laryngeal cancer and precancerous lesions in the Department of Otorhinolaryngology of Zhongshan Hospital of Traditional Chinese Medicine from January 2013 to December 2023 were collected retrospectively as the case group, and 125 patients with vocal cord polyps during the same period were selected as the control group. Independent risk factors for laryngeal carcinogenesis were identified using Logistic regression analysis. A nomogram was constructed based on these factors. The model's discrimination was evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic(ROC)curve, the area under the curve(AUC), and the Concordance Index(C-index). The model's calibration was assessed using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a calibration curve. Results Multivariate regression analysis showed that advanced age, male sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome, elevated WBC, and elevated NLR were significant independent risk factors for laryngeal carcinogenesis(all P<0.05). A nomogram was constructed based on these seven factors. The area under the ROC curve(AUC)for the combined model was 0.923(95% CI: 0.895-0.952), with a sensitivity of 83.6% and a specificity of 87.2%. The Hosmer-Lemeshow test indicated good goodness-of-fit for the nomogram(χ2=8.853, P=0.355). The calibration curve demonstrated good agreement(mean absolute error=0.009), and the model showed excellent discrimination(C-index=0.923). Conclusion Advanced age, male sex, smoking, alcohol consumption, Qi stagnation and blood stasis syndrome, elevated WBC, and elevated NLR are independent risk factors for laryngeal carcinogenesis. The established nomogram, which integrates factors from both TCM and Western medicine, can effectively predict the risk of laryngeal carcinogenesis, providing a valuable reference for its early prevention and clinical management.

Key words: Laryngeal carcinoma, Precancerous lesion, Laryngeal carcinogenesis, Nomogram model, Prediction

CLC Number: 

  • R739.65
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