1990—2021年中国年龄相关性听力下降负担变化趋势及预测

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1673-3770.0.2024.511

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析1990—2021年间中国年龄相关性听力下降(age-related hearing loss, ARHL)负担的长期趋势及未来预测,并与全球数据对比。方法利用2021年全球疾病负担研究的公开数据,选取患病和伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life-years, DALYs)及其年龄标化率描述中国ARHL负担;采用年度变化百分率估计值(estimated annual percentage change, EAPC)评估 1990—2021年间ARHL负担变化趋势;通过自回归移动平均模型预测2022—2050年中国和全球ARHL的患病及DALYs。结果 1990—2021年中国ARHL患病人数从1.98亿例增至4.45亿例(增长124.7%),同期全球患病人数为15.46亿例,增幅为108.6%。年龄标准化DALYs率(age-standardized DALYs rate, ASDR)从557.47/10万人年增至630.67/10万人年(EAPC=0.35),高于全球水平(EAPC=0.16)。疾病负担存在明显性别差异,男性ASDR(667.54/10万)高于女性(592.27/10万),且增长更快(EAPC:0.35 vs. 0.17)。年龄分布特征显著,55—59岁人群患病人数最多(6 579.73万例),70岁以上人群患病率超过70%。值得注意的是,<20岁人群患病率增长最快(EAPC=0.81)。预测显示,至2050年中国患病人数将达6.62亿例,DALYs增幅(71.3%)远超全球水平(11.3%)。结论中国ARHL疾病负担增长迅速且特征显著,需建立针对性防控体系,重点关注老年人群听力管理和青年人群噪声防护。

Abstract: Objective To analyze the long-term trends and future projections of the burden of age-related hearing loss(ARHL)in China between 1990 and 2021, with comparisons to global data. Methods Using publicly available data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we estimated the burden of ARHL in China based on prevalence and disability-adjusted life-years(DALYs)and their age-standardized rates. Estimated annual percentage change(EAPC)was used to assess trends from 1990 to 2021, while autoregressive integrated moving average models were used to predict prevalence and DALYs for China and globally from 2022 to 2050. Results Between 1990 and 2021, the number of ARHL cases in China increased by 124.7%(from 198 million to 445 million), surpassing the global increase of 108.6% with 1.546 billion cases worldwide during the some period. The age-standardized DALYs rate(ASDR)increased from 557.47 to 630.67 per 100,000 person-years(EAPC=0.35), exceeding the global trend(EAPC=0.16). Significant gender differences were observed, with males exhibiting higher ASDR(667.54 vs. 592.27 per 100,000)and faster growth(EAPC: 0.35 vs. 0.17). Age-specific analysis revealed the highest number of cases in the 55-59 age group(65.80 million), with prevalence exceeding 70% in individuals aged ≥70 years. In particularly, the <20 age group showed the fastest growth in prevalence(EAPC=0.81). Projections indicate that China will have 662 million ARHL cases by 2050, with a 71.3% increase in DALYs, significantly higher than the global increase of 11.3%. Conclusion China is experiencing a rapidly growing ARHL burden with unique characteristics that require targeted interventions focusing on hearing care for older adults and noise protection for younger populations.

Key words: Age-related hearing loss, Disability adjusted life-years, Estimated annual percentage change, Aging, Hearing health

中图分类号:

R764

董凌康,于栋祯. 1990—2021年中国年龄相关性听力下降负担变化趋势及预测[J]. 山东大学耳鼻喉眼学报, 2025, 39(3): 61-69.

DONG Lingkang, YU Dongzhen. Trends and projections of the burden of age-related hearing loss in China from 1990 to 2021[J]. Journal of Otolaryngology and Ophthalmology of Shandong University, 2025, 39(3): 61-69.

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