Journal of Otolaryngology and Ophthalmology of Shandong University ›› 2024, Vol. 38 ›› Issue (1): 27-31.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1673-3770.0.2022.440

• Original Article • Previous Articles     Next Articles

To analyze the mortality trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma based on Joinpoint regression and an age-period-cohort model

DAI Honglei1, WANG Qiuyang2, MA Wenxue1, GUAN Bin1, QI Jingjing1   

  1. 1. Department of Otolaryngology, Jingmen People's Hospital, Jingchu Institute of Technology Affiliated Central Hospital, Jingmen 448000, Hubei, China2. Department of Otolaryngology, Xiangyang No.1 People's Hospital, Hubei University of Medicine, Xiangyang 441000, Hubei, China
  • Published:2024-01-12

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Abstract: Objective To explore the long-term development trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in China from 1990 to 2019. Methods Data obtained from the GHDx database established by the Global Burden of Disease Project was analyzed in this study. The Joinpoint regression model was used to analyze the trend of NPC mortality in China, and the age-period-cohort model was used to estimate the age effect, period effect, and cohort effect on nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality risk in China. Results Overall, from 1990 to 2019, the nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality rate in China showed a downward trend year by year. The Joinpoint regression model showed that the overall trend was divided into five segments, and the AAPC value was -2.454%. The trend of nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality in males could be divided into five segments, with an AAPC value of -1.958%. The change trend of female nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality can be divided into six segments, and the AAPC value was -3.498%. Additionally, increasing age significantly increases nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality, and the cycle effect of mortality generally shows an upward trend. Conclusion The cohort reduction effect may lead to a decrease in nasopharyngeal carcinoma mortality, while an increase in age and the cycle effect may lead to an increase in cancer mortality.

Key words: Nasopharyngeal carcinoma, Mortality, Joinpoint regression model, Age-period-ohort model

CLC Number: 

  • R739.6
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