山东大学耳鼻喉眼学报 ›› 2026, Vol. 40 ›› Issue (4): 19-27.doi: 10.6040/j.issn.1673-3770.0.2025.510
郭鹤龄1,周恩2,彭正加1,梁分凤1,秦念1
GUO Heling1, ZHOU En2, PENG Zhengjia1, LIANG Fenfeng1, QIN Nian1
摘要: 目的 基于2023年全球疾病负担研究数据,分析1990—2023年中国听力损失的疾病负担变化趋势、性别与年龄分布特征及职业噪声暴露归因情况,并预测未来负担趋势。 方法 提取1990—2023年中国听力损失的患病人数、伤残调整生命年(disability-adjusted life years, DALYs)、年龄标准化患病率(age-standardised prevalence rate, ASPR)和年龄标准化伤残调整生命年率(age-standardised DALY rate, ASDR)。采用对数线性回归模型计算估计年均百分比变化(estimated annual percentage change, EAPC)评估时间趋势。应用自回归综合移动平均模型预测2024—2043年ASPR和ASDR变化趋势,并分析职业噪声暴露对DALYs的归因比例。 结果 2023年,中国听力损失患病人数为4.84亿例,DALYs为1 413.16万年。1990—2023年间,患病人数和DALYs分别增加148.3%和135%。ASPR呈上升趋势[EAPC为0.20%,95%置信区间为(0.15%,0.24%)],ASDR变化无统计学意义。男性ASPR和ASDR均高于女性,且疾病负担随年龄增长而增加,其中50~74岁人群负担最为突出。预测结果显示,2024—2043年ASPR将持续上升,而ASDR呈稳定或轻度下降趋势。2023年中国听力损失DALYs中约21.6%归因于职业噪声暴露。 结论 1990—2023年中国听力损失疾病负担总体上升,男性负担高于女性,50~74岁人群为主要受累人群。人口增长、人口老龄化及职业噪声暴露可能是重要影响因素。加强高危人群筛查与职业噪声防控有助于减轻未来疾病负担。
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