1990—2021年中国归因于过量饮酒的喉癌疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测

doi:10.6040/j.issn.1673-3770.0.2025.124

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 目的分析1990—2021年间中国因过量饮酒导致的喉癌疾病负担变化趋势,并预测至2040年的趋势,为疾病防控提供参考。方法基于全球疾病负担2021年数据,提取伤残调整生命年(disability adjusted life years, DALYs)和伤残调整生命年率(disability adjusted life years rate, DALYs),死亡人数和死亡率作为分析指标评估疾病负担;运用分解分析探讨人口增长、老龄化及流行病学改变对疾病负担变化的贡献;利用年龄-时期-队列模型分析不同年龄组、时期、出生队列疾病负担变化趋势;采用贝叶斯年龄-时期-队列(bayesian age-period-cohort, BAPC)模型预测至2040年趋势变化。结果 1990—2021年,中国因过量饮酒导致的喉癌DALYs和死亡人数增加,但年龄标准化DALYs率(age standardized disability adjusted life years rate, ASDR)和年龄标准化死亡率(age standardized mortality rate, ASMR)呈下降趋势,相较于全球水平,中国负担较轻;男性的负担显著高于女性,55~59岁和65~69岁为关键年龄段;人口增长是负担增加的主要因素,流行病学改变因素起保护作用。1992—1996年、65~69岁年龄组因过量饮酒导致喉癌的负担最高,年龄较大的出生队列显示出更高负担。预测至2040年,疾病负担将持续下降。结论 1990—2021年,中国因过量饮酒导致喉癌的绝对负担持续增长,但年龄标准化率呈下降趋势,预测至2040年将持续降低。流行病学改变减轻了疾病负担,但人口增长和老龄化使绝对负担上升。55岁以上男性群体是疾病负担的重点人群,仍是中国在应对过量饮酒导致喉癌问题上的关键挑战。

关键词: 过量饮酒, 喉癌, 全球疾病负担, 分解分析, BAPC模型

Abstract: Objective To analyze trends temporal trends in the burden of laryngeal cancer(LC)attributable to excessive alcohol use in China from 1990 to 2021, and project future trajectories through 2040, thereby informing evidence-based disease prevention strategies. Methods Utilizing Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we extracted disability-adjusted life years(DALYs), DALY rates, death counts, and mortality rates as core metrics to assess disease burden. Decomposition analysis was employed to quantify the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes to temporal shifts in disease burden. Age-Period-Cohort(APC)modeling was applied to analyze differential trends across age groups, calendar periods, and birth cohorts. Future trajectories through 2040 were projected using a Bayesian Age-Period-Cohort(BAPC)model. Results From 1990 to 2021, the number of DALYs and deaths attributable to excessive alcohol consumption increased in China, but the age-standardized DALY rate(ASDR)and age standardized mortality rate(ASMR)showed a decreasing trend. Compared with the global level, the burden in China was relatively light; the burden on men was significantly higher than that on women, with the key age groups being 55-59 years and 65-69 years. Population growth is the primary factor driving the increase in burden, while epidemiological changes have a protective effect. The highest burden of throat cancer attributable to excessive alcohol consumption was observed in the 1992-1996 cohort and the 65-69 age group, with older birth cohorts exhibiting a higher burden. Projections indicate that the disease burden will continue to decline by 2040. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, the absolute burden of throat cancer caused by excessive alcohol consumption in China continued to increase, but the age-standardized rate showed a downward trend, with predictions indicating that it will continue to decline until 2040. Epidemiological changes have alleviated the disease burden, but population growth and aging have caused the absolute burden to rise. Men over the age of 55 are the key population group affected by the disease burden and remain a key challenge for China in addressing throat cancer caused by excessive alcohol consumption.

Key words: Excessive alcohol consumption, Larynx cancer, Global Burden of Disease, Decomposition analysis, BAPC model

中图分类号:

R739.65

刘丹凤,潘庆春,李代波,封雪飞,任健. 1990—2021年中国归因于过量饮酒的喉癌疾病负担分析及未来趋势预测[J]. 山东大学耳鼻喉眼学报, 2025, 39(5): 61-69.

LIU Danfeng, PAN Qingchun, LI Daibo, FENG Xuefei, REN Jian. Burden of larynx cancer attributable to excessive alcohol consumption and prediction of future trends in China from 1990 to 2021[J]. Journal of Otolaryngology and Ophthalmology of Shandong University, 2025, 39(5): 61-69.

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